The -17 plunge in *new* international students (from IIE's Fall 2025-26 Snapshot Survey) is the data point that is most disconcerting. This aligns with NAFSA's projections, and with CommonApp's reporting of severe declines in international student applications submitted via its platform through the Nov 1, 2025, early application deadline. Not surprised that the lagging Open Doors data (which is measuring the academic year that started under the Biden administration) was relatively positive, but circumstances have shifted dramatically since then. Hope we can resist, recover from, and reverse these trends. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/us/international-students-enrollment-decrease.html
Agreed—the 17% decline in new enrollment is significant and concerning. Worth noting for context the projection was "30-40 percent decline in new international student enrollment in the United States this fall." https://www.nafsa.org/fall-2025-international-student-enrollment-outlook-and-economic-impact Either way, the directional trend is clear and aligns with what both NAFSA and CommonApp data suggest. Appreciate you highlighting this data points and the valuable work you are doing!
Thanks for writing this, it clarifies a lot. So true; the structural cracks are showing evewhere.
Thanks for the feedback and I'm glad it clarified and put into context this year's declines. I'll have more analysis in the coming weeks.
The -17 plunge in *new* international students (from IIE's Fall 2025-26 Snapshot Survey) is the data point that is most disconcerting. This aligns with NAFSA's projections, and with CommonApp's reporting of severe declines in international student applications submitted via its platform through the Nov 1, 2025, early application deadline. Not surprised that the lagging Open Doors data (which is measuring the academic year that started under the Biden administration) was relatively positive, but circumstances have shifted dramatically since then. Hope we can resist, recover from, and reverse these trends. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/us/international-students-enrollment-decrease.html
Agreed—the 17% decline in new enrollment is significant and concerning. Worth noting for context the projection was "30-40 percent decline in new international student enrollment in the United States this fall." https://www.nafsa.org/fall-2025-international-student-enrollment-outlook-and-economic-impact Either way, the directional trend is clear and aligns with what both NAFSA and CommonApp data suggest. Appreciate you highlighting this data points and the valuable work you are doing!