I wanted to add that someone recently sent me a message with something else worth considering: Level changes and program transfers might be inflating SEVIS enrollment without showing up in I-94 arrival data.
Consider: Students already in the U.S. cycling through the system—bachelor's → master's, master's → PhD, or even post-OPT returns for second master's degrees—would appear as enrolled in SEVIS but wouldn't generate new I-94 arrivals. Adding this to my list of hypotheses to track and test as more granular data becomes available.
Feel free to DM or email me at chris.glass@bc.edu with any thoughts/hypotheses-to-test if you prefer not to share them in the comments
I wanted to add that someone recently sent me a message with something else worth considering: Level changes and program transfers might be inflating SEVIS enrollment without showing up in I-94 arrival data.
Consider: Students already in the U.S. cycling through the system—bachelor's → master's, master's → PhD, or even post-OPT returns for second master's degrees—would appear as enrolled in SEVIS but wouldn't generate new I-94 arrivals. Adding this to my list of hypotheses to track and test as more granular data becomes available.
Feel free to DM or email me at chris.glass@bc.edu with any thoughts/hypotheses-to-test if you prefer not to share them in the comments